Chapter Three…How the Dunning Kruger Effect is and has been
destroying the Business of Business Aviation?
In chapters one and two I mention the “Dunning Kruger specimen” or the “Dunning Kruger Effect” (a lot). So why am I so obsessed with the Dunning Kruger effect? To find out, let’s check out what A Dunning Kruger specimen is and why it is so devastating to the business of business aviation.
First, what is Dunning Kruger? As copied from https://www.britannica.com/
Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge or competence in a given intellectual or social domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general.
In the studies reported in their paper “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence,” this pathology often leads to Inflated self-assessments (1999).
Dunning and Kruger emphasized that the effect they had identified does not always imply that people overestimate their own knowledge or competence. Whether they do so depends in part on the domain in which they evaluate themselves (most golfers do not believe that they are better at golf than Tiger Woods) and whether they possess “a minimal threshold of knowledge, theory, or experience” that, given the effect, would lead them to the false belief that they are knowledgeable or competent.
In the world of business aviation, the Dunning Kruger effect is precisely the effect that has limited the entire business aviation industry to less than 5% of its real market potential. The reason a limited market exists (in my professional opinion) has another and more common name: EGO. There is a lot of misplaced EGO involved in business aviation and none of it is with pilots, but lies absolutely with ownership and management. (FYI, Dunning Kruger is a euphemism or alternate word for EGO. And EGO is especially prevalent in the highly technical and highly regulated world of aviation. EGO is the death knell for any aviation related business. “How” you ask?
Owning and or operating any kind of aviation is not for newcomers: Business aviation to the Dunning Kruger specimen is perceived as glamorous and opulent, therefore, a DK’er always wants to run their new toy. And that is where it has, is, and will always go wrong. Dunning Krugers break things and they do not care as Daddy will always buy them a new thing to break.
The Dunning Kruger specimens that own, run, oversee, and operate aviation related industries are generally privileged individuals that know little-to-nothing about aviation except that “they want one”. And they know that they can get one. They run to Daddy or some other relative or acquaintance and acquire another aviation business with lots of new shiny airplanes to play with.
This is the number ONE reason that the business of business aviation is considered by many as a joke or bad investment and, consequently, is the direct result of those Dunning Kruger-type people running business aviation that I have known of since 1962. Meantime creative people with the skill sets and knowledge to advance the aviation industry get passed by. So, some wannabe rich kid comes up with Uber for airplanes, or some other dumb-assed plan that will never work for a million reasons, yet investors flock to such short-lived and failed ideas.
Some DK’ers will even take the time to learn a few aviation related words which they throw out at the country club to fein their expertise, but in fact, all it demonstrates to seasoned aviation professionals is that they know less than nothing. It is one of the biggest tells, a person running his or her mouth saying things out of context thereby verifying they are a true Dunning Kruger.
To understand aviation, the word “aviation” alone is not going to get it. The Dunning Kruger specimen breaks down belief in objective truth giving them a schizophrenic relationship with the truth, a “truth” that allows them to believe the changing nature of reality as is presented to them by other DK;ers. DK’ers reinforce the syndrome by declaring themselves infallible. The very conditions that have created the blind-leading-the-blind and makes most business aviation a joke are the trust fund babies running (or ruining?) the business. To enforce the absurdity, they even give each other trophies in grand presentations at national events to bolster their view of things, which rarely, if ever, has anything to do with reality or the truth.
Anointing themselves with the title CEO or chairman of the board in no way adds any value to any business aviation company. Does a person that has a brain think because he or she has one they are remotely capable of performing brain surgery on anyone? Or can an actual brain surgeon do his own plumbing on his own house? Probably not. Brain surgeons, plumbers, and pilots must be proven, qualified, and regularly take oral exams and practical tests to show competence. In the case of aviation, pilots are required to take medicals every 6 months as well as physical check rides every six months. What tests do self-appointed CEO’s take? Coffee or tea?
Today, the primary requirement for a CEO or chairman of an aviation company is to be able to tell a duck from a jet and have rich family members or connections. Specifically, all they need is to be trust fund recipients.
So, being ignorant of aviation, unchecked and unsupervised, they can run aviation companies any way they want, and they do by following each other around and producing and copying completely useless, money-losing, and stupid concepts that never actually work. They either lose money or pass the losses on to aircraft owners regardless of what kind of system they are using.
Terms like “economies of scale” are the most common terms used by the Dunning Kruger’s of the world (although no one seems willing to, or can say what that means exactly). And therein lies the reason why the business of business aviation fails to be profitable. The Dunning Kruger trust fund disciples, the ones that know it all with a complete lack of competence in what they are doing, why they are doing it, and how to do it correctly are, and will always be, the problem.
To be clear here, I am not anti-success, or anti-aviation. Quite the contrary. However, I will never accept the fact that unfounded profit incentives must come at the expense of aircraft owners or users. And this is the current state of business aviation until we change it.
The market for aviation is huge. The market conditions are perfect for a massive sea-change disruptor. The only thing preventing success in aviation are the Dunning Kruger acolytes that infest the very leadership that hinders the very success of business aviation.
For pest control we will require an NDA. Contact Dan Mack mackassoci@aol.com or Rick Eriksen rick.eriksen@cox.net
Chapter one https://airpwr.com/the-tam-the-sam-the-som-chapter-one/
Chapter two https://airpwr.com/the-tam-the-sam-the-som/
